Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greater Dublin Region

Eda Ustaoğlu · Brendan Williams · Laura Oana Petrov · Harutyun Shahumyan · Hedwig van Delden

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Urban Transport and Accessibility transportation and logistics systems Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis

Abstract

In this study, environmental sustainability implications of planned rail infrastructure investments on the urban form and development in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR) have been analysed incorporating the scenario analysis approach. Various scenarios are developed using the MOLAND Model applications including: A baseline scenario incorporating a continuation of the present dispersed pattern of urban development and an alternative scenario with rail-oriented corridor development, under varying conditions of economic growth. An alternative scenario was also developed for the recessionary development case considering the prolonged recession in the GDR. Further explorations incorporating a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach are developed to evaluate the sustainability implications of different land development scenarios in the Dublin Region. This is assisted by focussing on the impacts of rail investments on urban form and development as raised in the international comparative literature. The findings from the CBA assessment positively indicate that containment policies-as represented by the public transport oriented development indicate benefits over the dispersed development case by reducing the negative consequences of sprawl type of developments. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline scenario indicates costs of continuation of such development patterns exceed the benefits in the long term. This study will contribute to policy support evaluation measures relating to the integration of scenario analysis tool with the CBA approach in assisting the evaluation of new transport infrastructure proposals.

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