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The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
16 references·6 citing·34 second hop
The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (2018)The Value of Precision in Probability Ass…A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive (2023)A System of Logic, Ratiocinat…Perception and Misperception in International Politics (2017)Perception and Misperception …Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction (2016)Superforecasting: the art and…Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test (2012)Measuring Risk Literacy: The …A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive (2011)A System of Logic, Ratiocinat…Numeracy and Decision Making (2006)Numeracy and Decision MakingExpert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know? (2006)Expert political judgment: ho…System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (2000)System Effects: Complexity in…Intelligence: from secrets to policy (2000)Intelligence: from secrets to…The need for cognition. (1982)The need for cognition.How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions (1982)How probable is probable? A n…OBJECTIVE KNOWLEDGE: AN EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH (1973)OBJECTIVE KNOWLEDGE: AN EVOLU…Objective Knowledge, an Evolutionary Approach. (1973)Objective Knowledge, an Evolu…A Treatise on Probability (1973)A Treatise on ProbabilityRisk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Sava…The General Theory of Employment (1937)The General Theory of Employm…Making Accurate Judgements in Child Welfare: Comparing ChatGPT With Qualified Social Workers (2025)Making Accurate Judgements in…Expressions of uncertainty in online science communication hinder information diffusion (2024)Expressions of uncertainty in…Which Type of Statistical Uncertainty Helps Evidence-Based Policymaking? An Insight from a Survey Experiment in Ireland (2021)Which Type of Statistical Unc…Mathematically aggregating experts’ predictions of possible futures (2021)Mathematically aggregating ex…Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting (2020)Bias, Information, Noise: The…From discipline-centered rivalries to solution-centered science: Producing better probability estimates for policy makers. (2019)From discipline-centered riva…The achievement motive (1953)The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations. (1958)The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion (1986)Political conservatism as motivated social cognition. (2003)Common Method Bias in Marketing: Causes, Mechanisms, and Procedural Remedies (2012)A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (2017)Feeling and thinking: Preferences need no inferences. (1980)The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. (1996)Risk as feelings. (2001)Conducting Discrete Choice Experiments to Inform Healthcare Decision Making (2008)The Polarizing Impact of Science Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks (2012)Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response (2020)Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Building Better Causal Theories: A Fuzzy Set Approach to Typologies in Organization Research (2011)SOCIAL CONSTRUCTIVIST PERSPECTIVES ON TEACHING AND LEARNING (1998)Tacit Knowledge, Organizational Learning and Societal Institutions: An Integrated Framework (2000)Studies of expansive learning: Foundations, findings and future challenges (2010)Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: A New Approach (2011)Too Much of a Good Thing (2011)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)Phenomenography ? Describing conceptions of the world around us (1981)Computer Support for Knowledge-Building Communities (1994)Learning by Expanding (2014)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Does the Stock Market Overreact? (1985)Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets (1990)Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market (2007)Introduction: epistemic communities and international policy coordination (1992)Rationalist explanations for war (1995)International Norm Dynamics and Political Change (1998)
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References

  • 1961Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms7,892 cited
  • 1982The need for cognition.5,357 cited
  • 1937The General Theory of Employment5,168 cited
  • 1973Objective Knowledge, an Evolutionary Approach.3,770 cited
  • 2017Perception and Misperception in International Politics3,199 cited
  • 1973A Treatise on Probability2,575 cited
  • 1973OBJECTIVE KNOWLEDGE: AN EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH1,614 cited
  • 2023A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive1,430 cited
  • 2006Expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know?1,260 cited
  • 2006Numeracy and Decision Making1,178 cited
  • 2011A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive1,079 cited
  • 2016Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction919 cited
  • 2012Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test755 cited
  • 2000Intelligence: from secrets to policy578 cited
  • 1982How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions527 cited
  • 2000System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life515 cited

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Cited by

  • 2020Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting57 cited
  • 2019From discipline-centered rivalries to solution-centered science: Producing better probability estimates for policy makers.47 cited
  • 2021Mathematically aggregating experts’ predictions of possible futures39 cited
  • 2024Expressions of uncertainty in online science communication hinder information diffusion9 cited
  • 2025Making Accurate Judgements in Child Welfare: Comparing ChatGPT With Qualified Social Workers5 cited
  • 2021Which Type of Statistical Uncertainty Helps Evidence-Based Policymaking? An Insight from a Survey Experiment in Ireland1 cited