Structural inequality, natural resources and mobilization in southern Tanzania

Abstract

Following large offshore discoveries, Tanzania is set to become a major natural gas producer. Widespread political pledges first fueled popular expectations of local development in the southern regions close to the discoveries. Still, in 2012 and 2013, before any gas was produced, riots erupted amid claims of broken promises. Conflict theories to a large extent fail to explain these riots. Spatial inequality is a recognized conflict driver, yet southern Tanzania remained peaceful for five decades despite grave regional marginalization. Furthermore, standard explanations of natural resource conflicts are all linked to large revenues flows, and no such flows were present at the time of the conflict. This article investigates when and how spatial inequalities and natural resources spark conflict. Based on semi-structured interviews and new survey data, it finds that natural resource mismanagement and subsequent leadership framing increased the salience of a regional identity and exacerbated felt group grievances in southern Tanzania. A feeling of injustice was particularly salient in motivating riot participants.

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