Preprintgreen2018

Are Reference Points Merely Lagged Beliefs Over Probabilities?

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies

Abstract

Rady for helpful comments; the RatioLab team and especially Deborah Marciano-Romm, and the Business Simulation Lab team and especially Margaret Shackell, for help running the experiments; Maya Catabi, Bnaya Dreyfuss, and Guy Ishai for research assistance, and especially Aharon Haver for thoughtful and creative research assistance throughout the entire development of the project.I also thank Danny Kahneman for triggering off the train of thought that

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References

1979Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk 2007z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments 1990Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem 2017Redefine statistical significance 2006A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences 1991A Theory of Disappointment Aversion 2016Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics 1985Disappointment in Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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2019Monetary-Incentive Competition Between Humans and Robots: Experimental Results 2024Craving money? Evidence from the laboratory and the field 2025Price expectations and reference-dependent preferences

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