Preprintgreen2017

Anchoring and Adjustment

Falk Lieder · Thomas L. Griffiths · Quentin J. M. Huys · Noah D. Goodman

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference Cognitive Science and Education Research

Abstract

This technical report compares alternative computational models of numerical estimation using Bayesian model selection. We find that people's estimates are best explained by a resource-rational model of anchoring and adjustment according to which the number of adjustments increases with error cost but decreases with time cost so as to achieve an optimal speed-accuracy tradeoff.

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References

1974Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 1997Explaining the enigmatic anchoring effect: Mechanisms of selective accessibility.2006The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic 1999Hypothesis-Consistent Testing and Semantic Priming in the Anchoring Paradigm: A Selective Accessibility Model 2014One and Done? Optimal Decisions From Very Few Samples 2010The effect of accuracy motivation on anchoring and adjustment: Do people adjust from provided anchors?2012Burn-in, bias, and the rationality of anchoring 2016The anchor integration model: A descriptive model of anchoring effects

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