Stock Market Prediction via Multi-Source Multiple Instance Learning

Xi Zhang · Siyu Qu · Jieyun Huang · Binxing Fang · Philip S. Yu

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Stock Market Forecasting Methods Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Forecasting the stock market movements is an important and challenging task. As the Web information grows, researchers begin to extract effective indicators (e.g., the events and sentiments) from the Web to facilitate the prediction. However, the indicators obtained in previous studies are usually based on only one data source and thus may not fully cover the factors that can affect the stock market movements. In this paper, to improve the prediction for stock market composite index movements, we exploit the consistencies among different data sources, and develop a multi-source multiple instance model that can effectively combine events, sentiments, as well as the quantitative data into a comprehensive framework. To effectively capture the news events, we successfully apply a novel event extraction and representation method. Evaluations on the data from the year 2015 and 2016 demonstrate the effectiveness of our model. In addition, our approach is able to automatically determine the importance of each data source and identify the crucial input information that is considered to drive the movements, making the predictions interpretable.

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References

1965The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices 2011Twitter mood predicts the stock market 2015Deep learning for event-driven stock prediction 2005Social Mood and Financial Economics 2016Deep learning for stock prediction using numerical and textual information 2014Using Structured Events to Predict Stock Price Movement: An Empirical Investigation 2009Predicting risk from financial reports with regression 2013Exploiting Topic based Twitter Sentiment for Stock Prediction

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