Remeasuring Business Cycles

Christina Romer

125 citations0/0 files storedThe Journal of Economic History

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Historical Economic and Social Studies Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

This article evaluates the consistency of the NBER business cycle reference dates. It finds that the early reference dates are derived from detrended data, whereas the dates after 1927 are derived from data in levels. To evaluate the importance of this and other changes in technique, I derive a simple algorithm that matches the postwar NBER peaks and troughs closely. When this algorithm is applied to data for 1884 to 1940, the new prewar dates differ systematically from the NBER dates and challenge the conventional view that recessions have gotten shorter over time.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 125 citations exist upstream.

References

1994Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle 1989The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908 1992Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy

Cited by

2012Has the Fed been a failure?2006The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions 1997Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features 2001Recent Changes in the US Business Cycle 2005Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area 2016DEEP RECESSIONS, FAST RECOVERIES, AND FINANCIAL CRISES: EVIDENCE FROM THE AMERICAN RECORD 1999Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations 2003International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence

Explore the map →

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.