Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics

George Hall · Thomas J. Sargent

105 citations0/0 files storedAmerican Economic Journal Macroeconomics

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Fiscal Policies and Political Economy Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic and Fiscal Studies

Abstract

This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities. (JEL E23, E31, E43, G12, H63)

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1983Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital 2000Recursive Macroeconomic Theory 1984Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic 2007The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present 2001Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation?2009The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation 2007The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation 1987How Real is The Federal Deficit?

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