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This paper investigates a problem where the solver must\nfirstly determine which of two possible causes are the source\nof an effect where one cause has a historically higher\npropensity to cause that effect. Secondly, they must update the\npropensity of the two causes to produce the effect in light of\nthe observation. Firstly, we find an error commensurate with\nthe ‘double updating’ error observed within the polarisation\nliterature: individuals appear to first use their prior beliefs to\ninterpret the evidence, then use the interpreted form of the\nevidence, rather than the raw form, when updating. Secondly,\nwe find an error where individuals convert from a\nprobabilistic representation of the evidence to a categorical\none and use this representation when updating. Both errors\nhave the effect of exaggerating the evidence in favour of the\nsolver’s prior belief and could lead to confirmation bias and\npolarisation.
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