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Abstract Importance There have been recent concerns about a higher incidence of mortality by suicide in people with a utism spectrum disorder (ASD). To our knowledge, no large cohort studies have examined which features of autism may lead to suicidal ideation and behaviour, and whether there are any potential modifiable mechanisms. Objective To examine the hypothesis that ASD diagnosis and traits in childhood are associated with suicidal thoughts, plans and self-harm at 16 years, and that any of the observed associations are explained by depression in adolescence at 12 years. Design, setting and participants Prospective investigation of associations between ASD diagnosis and autistic traits with suicidal ideation and behaviour and a potential risk pathway via depression in early adolescence in 5,031 members of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Main outcomes and measures History of self-harm with and without suicidal intent, suicidal thoughts and plans at 16 years assessed using a detailed self-report questionnaire. Exposures were ASD diagnosis and four measures (the coherence subscale of the Children’s Communication Checklist, the Social and Communication Disorders Checklist, a repetitive behaviour measure, and the sociability temperament subscale of the Emotionality, Activity and Sociability scale) dichotomised to represent the autism trait groups. Depressive symptoms in early adolescence were measured by the Short Moods and Feelings Questionnaire at 12 years. Results Children with impaired social communication had a higher risk of self-harm with suicidal intent (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.28, 3.34), suicidal thoughts (1.42 times (95% CI 1.06, 1.91) and suicidal plans (RR 1.95, 95% CI 1.09, 3.47) by the age of 16 years as compared to those without. There was no evidence for an association between ASD diagnosis and the outcomes although these analyses were imprecise due to small numbers. There was also no evidence of an association between other autism trait measures and the outcomes. Approximately 32% of the total estimated association between social communication impairment and self-harm was explained by depressive symptoms at age 12 years. Conclusions Impairments in social communication are important in relation to suicidality. Early identification and management of depression may be a preventative mechanism and future research identifying other modifiable mechanisms may lead to preventative action or interventions against suicidal behaviour in this high-risk group.
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