Introducing a heuristic approach to enhance the reliability of system safety assessment

Abstract

Abstract Probabilistic risk assessment techniques are the important tools which can considerably improve the safety performance of the studied system and reduce the risk to an acceptable level. Typically, decision‐making process is an important part of risk assessment methods that accordingly bring the ambiguity inside. Decision makers as experts commonly express their subjective opinions about the occurrence of the root events in order to obtain the probability of the undesired event. Subsequently, the critical root events are identified, and possible intervention is performed to reduce the probability of the critical events. However, the serious point is the viability of the obtained probabilities and priority ranking of the critical events. In this study, a heuristic optimization model of linear mathematical programming using triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number (TrIFN) is proposed to obtain the feasible, optimum, and reliable results compared with available methods. The Spearman correlation is performed to examine the reliability and behavior of the proposed model. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it is applied on a real case study. The application of the model confirms its robustness to prioritize critical root events over the conventional one.

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