Matrix purpose in scenario planning: Implications of congruence with scenario project purpose

Abstract

This research seeks to improve success of scenario planning by showing the effects of congruence between the scenario planning purpose of the sponsoring organization, here called the scenario project purpose, and purpose created as product of (intuitive-logics) scenario matrix choices, here called scenario matrix purpose. Congruence between project purpose and matrix purpose is shown to facilitate scenario relevance to and use by the organization. Lack of congruence has the opposite effect. In this, the paper isolates a particular source of scenario formulation error, and so advances understanding of conditions that contribute to scenario project success. The findings are derived and illustrated from research into 13 scenario projects.

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