The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population

Abstract

In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas.These models typically assume either a constant or a growing population.However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average.It is a distinct possibility -highlighted in the recent book, "Empty Planet" -that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run.What happens to economic growth when population growth turns negative?

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