The impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's top exports to the five main export markets

Abstract

This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's primary export commodities to the top five export destination countries, namely China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. This study uses a GARCH model to obtain an estimated value of exchange rate volatility, using monthly data covering from 2006 to 2018. The ARDL method helps to measure the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports to destination countries in both the short and the long-term. Aggregate exports are compared employing a linear (ARDL) and a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The findings suggest that exchange rate volatility has a significant effect on exports of commodities under code 26 (ores), 38 (chemicals), 40 (rubber), and 47 (pulp paper) to India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, either in the short or long-run. The exchange rate volatility of exports to China only affects plastics goods (code 39), although many goods experience negative effects due to exchange rate depreciation. In India, exchange rate volatility affects the largest number of export commodities. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has a strong long-term effect on exports to Asian countries. Impacts due to exchange rates offer both negative effects and positive effects (expected) in exports at commodity and trade partner case-to-case levels. Both aggregate ARDL and NARDL models suggest that Indonesian exports are negatively affected by exchange rate fluctuations.

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