Variable Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Development of the Region

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop an algorithm for forming a forecast image of the region on a variable basis, which will allow a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of the region, develop scenarios for the development of the region and evaluate each of the options, studying its structural features and possible consequences of its implementation. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive assessment of the socio-economic development of Belgorod region was carried out. On the basis of the correlation and regression analysis, the factors that have the strongest influence on the resulting indicators were identified. As such, the authors suggest using the gross regional product per capita and the average per capita income of the population. The information base of the study is the data on Belgorod region for 2000–2017. The obtained regression equations of the relationship between the proposed resulting indicators and other considered indicators are statistically significant, which gives reason to use them as predictive models and to form different variants of the region’s development: optimistic, pessimistic and realistic. This algorithm can be used as a tool for analyzing and forming a forecast image of the region on a variable basis, taking into account scenario conditions. Thus, the study focuses on the need for scenario forecasting and modeling, which take into account the influence of major external and internal factors on the development of the regional economy and allow to get forecasts that reflect alternative development options.

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