Modeling and Forecasting of Socio-Economic Development of the Region

Abstract

The article is devoted to the modeling and forecasting of socio-economic development of the region. The dependence of GRP per capita of the Belgorod region on the average annual number of employed in the economy, the consolidated budget revenues, the volume of innovative works and services, the consumer price index, the industrial production index, the balanced financial result, exports was established. The analysis of the matrix of pair correlation coefficients of the selected indicators allowed to choose as the most significant explanatory variables the consolidated budget revenues and the average annual number of employees in the economy. The models of socio-economic development of the region were built. The quality of the models was evaluated. It was revealed that the most accurate is the power regression model. The forecast of further changes in GRP per capita was built on the basis of the retrospective analysis data. The method of extrapolation based on the construction of trend models for each explanatory variable was used to carry out the forecast.

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