Estimation of the number of blood donors during the COVID ‐19 incubation period across China and analysis of prevention and control measures for blood transfusion transmission

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the number of blood donors during the COVID-19 incubation period across China. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In this study, we developed a predictive model to estimate the number of blood donors during the COVID-19 incubation period among 34 provincial regions in China. Our main assumption was that blood donors of all ages in different regions have a stable blood donation intention and the same infection risk. RESULTS: First, we estimated the number of blood donors during the COVID-19 incubation period in Wuhan city, Hubei Province, and China, from December 31, 2019 to March 17, 2020. Second, we compared the number of blood donors during the COVID-19 incubation period in all provinces across China. In addition, we found that if all RBCs, plasma, and cryoprecipitation were stored in isolation until the 14th day, the potential risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission through blood transfusion was reduced by at least 65.77% after the blood donor safely passed the COVID-19 incubation period. Moreover, if the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was carried out on all platelets, the potential risk would be reduced by 77.48%. CONCLUSIONS: Although the risk is low, with the rapid spread of the COVID-19 and the appearance of alarmingly high infectivity and a high fatality rate, appropriate measures should be taken by health departments to ensure the safety of clinical blood.

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