Prediction of Red Blood Cell Demand for Pediatric Patients Using a Time-Series Model: A Single-Center Study in China

Abstract

Background Red blood cells (RBCs) are an essential factor to consider for modern medicine, but planning the future collection of RBCs and supply efforts for coping with fluctuating demands is still a major challenge. Objectives This study aimed to explore the feasibility of the time-series model in predicting the clinical demand of RBCs for pediatric patients each month. Methods Our study collected clinical RBC transfusion data from years 2014 to 2019 in the National Center for Children's Health (Beijing) in China, with the goal of constructing a time-series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model by fitting the monthly usage of RBCs from 2014 to 2018. Furthermore, the optimal model was used to forecast the monthly usage of RBCs in 2019, and we subsequently compared the data with actual values to verify the validity of the model. Results The seasonal multiplicative model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0)12 (normalized BIC = 8.740, R2 = 0.730) was the best prediction model and could better fit and predict the monthly usage of RBCs for pediatric patients in this medical center in 2019. The model residual sequence was white noise (Ljung-Box Q(18) = 15.127, P > 0.05), and its autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) coefficients also fell within the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The parameter test results were statistically significant (P < 0.05). 91.67% of the actual values were within the 95% CIs of the forecasted values of the model, and the average relative error of the forecasted and actual values was 6.44%, within 10%. Conclusions The SARIMA model can simulate the changing trend in monthly usage of RBCs of pediatric patients in a time-series aspect, which represents a short-term prediction model with high accuracy. The continuously revised SARIMA model may better serve the clinical environments and aid with planning for RBC demand. A clinical study including more data on blood use should be conducted in the future to confirm these results.

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