Article1977

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models for Birth Forecasting

100 citations0/0 files storedJournal of the American Statistical Association

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are developed for birth time series, and their relationship with classical models for population growth is investigated. Parsimonious versions for the ARIMA models are obtained which retain the most important pieces of information including the length of generation of the population. The technique is applied to birth time series data for Norway.

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References

1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1971Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control.1973The Structure of Human Populations.1969Some Stochastic Versions of the Matrix Model for Population Dynamics 1973Population: Facts and Methods of Demography.1974Forecasting Births in Post-Transition Populations: Stochastic Renewal with Serially Correlated Fertility 1973Population: Facts and Methods of Demography.1968Stochastic Models for the Population Growth of the Sexes

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