The turn from just-in-time to just-in-case globalization in and after times of COVID-19

Abstract

In this essay, we apply insights from International Economics and Economic Geography to examine how the current COVID-19 crisis may structurally change the international economy. Our key argument is that the current crisis will fundamentally change key economic actors' risk appetite, triggering a renewed risk assessment that will lead to the comeback of buffers and borders across industries. This partial return to regionalization will involve a form of de-globalization that transforms modern just-in-time management into its just-in-case counterpart, because resilience will be priced and discounted for by enterprises and governments alike. We discuss what such a structural change will imply for the International Business of international value chains.

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