Short-run Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Worker Transitions

Abstract

I use Current Population Survey Data from February and April 2020 to examine how individual workers have transitioned between labor-market states and which workers have been hurt most by the COVID-19 pandemic. I find not only large effects on workers becoming unemployed but also a decline in labor-force participation, an increase in absence from one’s job, and a decrease in hours worked. Generally, more vulnerable populations—racial and ethnic minorities, those born outside the U.S., women with children, the least educated, and workers with a disability—have experienced the largest declines in the likelihood of (full-time) work and work hours.

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