Bayesian Networks in Environmental Risk Assessment: A Review

Laura Kaikkonen · Tuuli Parviainen · Mika Rahikainen · Laura Uusitalo · Annukka Lehikoinen

268 citations0/0 files storedIntegrated Environmental Assessment and Management

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Risk and Safety Analysis Environmental and Social Impact Assessments Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference

Abstract

Abstract Human activities both depend upon and have consequences on the environment. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a process of estimating the probability and consequences of the adverse effects of human activities and other stressors on the environment. Bayesian networks (BNs) can synthesize different types of knowledge and explicitly account for the probabilities of different scenarios, therefore offering a useful tool for ERA. Their use in formal ERA practice has not been evaluated, however, despite their increasing popularity in environmental modeling. This paper reviews the use of BNs in ERA based on peer-reviewed publications. Following a systematic mapping protocol, we identified studies in which BNs have been used in an environmental risk context and evaluated the scope, technical aspects, and use of the models and their results. The review shows that BNs have been applied in ERA, particularly in recent years, and that there is room to develop both the model implementation and participatory modeling practices. Based on this review and the authors’ experience, we outline general guidelines and development ideas for using BNs in ERA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:62–78. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC) KEY POINTS This paper reviews the use of Bayesian Networks in Environmental Risk Assessments (ERA) based on peer-reviewed publications. The review shows that BNs have been applied in ERA particularly in recent years and that there is room to develop both the model implementation and participatory modeling practices. Based on this review and the authors' experience, we outline general guidelines and development ideas for using BNs in ERA.

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References

1973Dilemmas in a general theory of planning 2004Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality 2006Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities 1962Applied Statistical Decision Theory.2016A methodology for systematic mapping in environmental sciences 2008Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making 2005Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management 2018Online tools supporting the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews and systematic maps: a case study on CADIMA and review of existing tools

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