Energy supply transformation pathways in Iran to reduce GHG emissions in line with the Paris Agreement

Abstract

Extensive dependence of the national economy on wasteful fossil fuel use as well as limited access to the international financial markets and the best available techniques over the strict economic sanctions period have hindered Iran from developing a sustainable energy system. By considering the reversal order, the present study investigated the least-cost options for improving energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions in the energy supply sector. The essential purpose of this research work is to increase the evidence base necessary to inform policy and strategy discussions within Iran and related communities concerning the choice of GHG emissions reduction. Applying ARDL approach to project demand data besides running the bottom-up technology-rich optimization model of MESSAGEix over the 2016–2030 period help to tackle the transparency challenge of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by Iran. The research results suggest that improving the efficiency of fossil-fueled power plants to 46% besides curbing routine gas flaring by 2030 could well cover the Iranian unconditional and conditional contributions in the energy sector to cut GHG emissions by 12% compared to the business-as-usual pattern. Ensuring technical and financial supports, Iran can undertake the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) under the Paris Agreement, in line with the national policies to reduce energy intensity.

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