Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity: The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments

Steffen Keck · Wenjie Tang

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Social and Intergroup Psychology Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Drawing on dual-process theory, we suggest that the benefits that arise from combining several quantitative individual judgments will be heightened when these judgments are based on different cognitive processes. We tested this hypothesis in three experimental studies in which participants provided estimates for the dates of different historical events (Study 1, N = 152), made probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of soccer games (Study 2, N = 98), and estimated the weight of individuals on the basis of a photograph (Study 3, N = 3,695). For each of these tasks, participants were prompted to make judgments relying on an analytical process, on their intuition, or (in a control condition) on no specific instructions. Across all three studies, our results show that an aggregation of intuitive and analytical judgments provides more accurate estimates than any other aggregation procedure and that this advantage increases with the number of aggregated judgments.

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References

1996The empirical case for two systems of reasoning.2013The New Statistics 2007Exploring Intuition and its Role in Managerial Decision Making 1907Vox Populi 1996Human Judgment and Social Policy 2011Intuitive and deliberate judgments are based on common principles.2009Two Is Not Always Better Than One 2011Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making

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