Construal level theory and risky decision making following near‐miss events

Abstract

Abstract Near‐miss events, which occur when failure is avoided by chance, can lead to subsequent risky decisions due to base‐rate neglect. According to construal level theory, a lower level construal increases the neglect of base rates by giving more weight to case‐specific information. In four studies, I empirically test the hypothesis that low‐level construals moderate evaluations and decisions following near‐miss events by increasing the reliance on case information. In Study 1, I find that a higher construal correlates with negative assessments of a project manager responsible for a near‐miss incident. In Study 2, I prime participants to have a high‐ or low‐level construal and find that the manager evaluations in the low construal group are higher than evaluations of those in the high construal group. In Study 3, I examine whether construal levels impact decision making in personal contexts regarding natural disasters and provide evidence for the underlying mechanism of base‐rate neglect. In Study 4, I show that the construal levels affect decision making given that near‐miss information extends to variations in the temporal distance to near‐miss information. Thus, I find support that construal levels systematically influence evaluations and decision making following near‐miss events.

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