Bias and Heuristics

Abstract

Abstract This chapter addresses the cognitive bias and heuristics of judgement. It also considers possible underlying neural mechanisms. Economist Herbert Simon introduced the notion of heuristics in judgement to define the approximate rational rules upon which individuals rely to make decisions. Experimental psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky transformed this notion of heuristics by highlighting the cognitive biases that influence judgements. From his work with Tversky, Kahneman elaborated the two-systems theory. According to him, human decision-making is the result of a competition between a fast, automatic system (System 1) that is prone to make mistakes and a slower, more demanding but also more reliable one (System 2). Both systems use heuristics, but the second compensates with anticipation. This chapter then looks at initial bias and beliefs. It also explains the anchoring effect, as well as the dilution effect. Anchoring is the excessive influence of a first impression on judgements.

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