Trade war effects: evidence from sectors of energy and resources in Africa

Abstract

The US government proposes to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to significant concerns over the Trade War between the US and China. The article evaluates and examines the market responses of companies in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. Moreover, this paper fills the gap in literature about deglobalization in Energy and Resources Sectors in Africa. This paper proves the idea that US companies that are more dependent on exports and imports from China have lower stock and bond returns, and, at the same time, higher default risks in the short time aspect. The article found Trade War effects in energy and resources companies in Africa in the last years: on ownership rank, on credit country rank, on default risks and on their profitability. The paper also demonstrates that companies' indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output links affects their responses to news on the subject matter. These findings suggest that the state of US-China trade of energy and resources is much more complex than the simplistic view of global trade that was in the beginning of Trade War with China. As a result of the Trade War, the real changes in stock prices of China companies (-0.07%) in energy and resource sectors is less than the same changes in US companies in Africa (-0.32%) in 2019. Also, the probability of default of Chinese companies (average default probability changed in -0.08%) in energy and resource sectors changed less than the same rank of US companies in Africa (average default probability changed by -0.84%).

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