Credit Risk and Limits Forecasting in E-Commerce Consumer Lending Service via Multi-view-aware Mixture-of-experts Nets

Abstract

Consumer lending service is escalating in E-Commerce platforms due to its capability in enhancing buyers' purchasing power, improving average order value, and increasing revenue of the platforms. Credit risk forecasting and credit limits setting are two fundamental problems in E-Commerce/online consumer lending services. Currently, the majority of institutes rely on two-separate-step methods to resolve. First, build a rating model to evaluate credit risk, and then design heuristic strategies to set credit limits, which requires a large amount of prior knowledge and lacks theoretical justifications. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end multi-view and multi-task learning based approach named MvMoE (Multi-view-aware Mixture-of-Experts network) to solve these two problems simultaneously. First, a multi-view network with a hierarchical attention mechanism is constructed to distill users' heterogeneous financial information into shared hidden representations. Then, we jointly train these two tasks with a view-aware multi-gate mixture-of-experts network and a subsequent progressive network to improve their performances. With the real-world dataset contained 5.44 million users, we investigate the effectiveness of MvMoE. Experimental results exhibit that the proposed model is able to improve AP over 5.60% on credit risk forecasting and MAE over 9.52% on credit limits setting compared with conventional methods. Meanwhile, MvMoE has good interpretability, which better underpins the imperative demands in financial industries.

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