Accounting Earnings and Gross Domestic Product

Yaniv Konchitchki · Panos N. Patatoukas

234 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Accounting and Economics

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Financial Markets and Investment Strategies

Abstract

We document that aggregate accounting earnings growth is an incrementally significant leading indicator of growth in nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Professional macro forecasters, however, do not fully incorporate the predictive content embedded in publicly available accounting earnings data. As a result, future nominal GDP growth forecast errors are predictable based on accounting earnings data that are available to professional macro forecasters in real time.

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References

1993Discretion versus policy rules in practice 2000Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory*1981Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money 2001Capital markets research in accounting 1998The relation between earnings and cash flows 2000Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates 1982Financial Reporting: An Accounting Revolution.2005What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?

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