Business Formation: A Tale of Two Recessions

Abstract

The trajectory of new business applications and transitions to employer businesses differs markedly during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 recession. Both applications and transitions to employer start-ups decreased slowly but persistently in the post-Lehman crisis period of the Great Recession. In contrast, during the COVID-19 recession, new applications initially declined but have since sharply rebounded, resulting in a surge in applications during 2020. Projected transitions to employer businesses also rise, but this is dampened by a change in the composition of applications in 2020 toward applications that are more likely to be nonemployers.

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