Global Change scenarios of the 21st century. Results from the IMAGE 2.1 model; 1. ed.

Abstract

Because of the enormity of the theme, the contents of the book must be limited to a few categories of possible global changes. Among these are: (1) changes in crop yield, natural ecosystems and sea level due to climate change; (2) shifting patterns of land cover affected by development and climate; and (3) large-scale acidification of the natural environment due to emissions from hundreds or thousands of kilometers away. These are huge topics, but still only a part of the wide horizon of global change studies. Part 1, `An Instrument for Building Global Change Scenarios`, describes the tool used for scenario calculations - the IMAGE 2.1 model. Although the model wasextensively documented in an earlier book, it has since been greatly extended. Hence, this chapter gives the reader an overview of the model as it currently stands, including its new features. Part 2, `Baseline Global Changes in the 21st Century`, describes scenarios of changing climate, energy and food use, land cover, acidification, sea level, and many other indicators of global change, on the regional and global scale up to 2100. These scenarios follow from different assumed pathways of population and economic growth, and their purpose is to provide a picture of future global changes under the assumption that policy measures are not taken to mitigate or avoid them. Although they are quite rich in information, they still describe only a few of the many possible scenarios of baseline changes. Part 3, `Evaluation of Global Policy Scenarios`, looks beyond the baseline and examines the long-term global consequences of taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A link is made between emission reductions and their effect on climate change impacts, land cover, and costs. A main theme of this section is the connection between long-term climate protection and short-term emission reductions through the new concepts of `safe landing` and `safe emission corridors`. Finally, Part 4, `Global Models and Global Policymaking`, deals with the complicated but crucial issue of how complex global scenario information can be communicated to policy makers and `stakeholders` concerned with global issues. 414 refs.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 175 citations exist upstream.