Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Trade between U.K. and China: An Asymmetric Analysis

Abstract

Our goal in this paper is to assess short-run and long-run effects of the real yuan-pound rate volatility on the U.K. exports to China and Chinese exports to the U.K. When a linear export model was estimated for each of the 70 industries, we found short-run effects on 43 (53) British (Chinese) exporting industries to China (the U.K.) and which lasted into the long run in 17 (28) British (Chinese) industries. However, when a nonlinear model was estimated, we found short-run asymmetric effects on 58 (67) British (Chinese) exporting industries that lasted into the long in 42 (52) British (Chinese) industries, mostly in an asymmetric manner. Our findings were industry specific but in general, while increased exchange rate volatility hurt British export to China in most industries, it actually boosted Chinese exports to the U.K., in most industries. On the other hand, decreased volatility boosted exports of some British industries, but it hurt exports of some Chinese exporting industries.

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