Articlegold2021

STUDY ON DYNAMIC INFLUENCE OF PASSENGER FLOW ON INTELLIGENT BUS TRAVEL SERVICE MODEL

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Transportation and Mobility Innovations Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques

Abstract

To improve the service quality and convenience of bus travel services, this paper proposes the Intelligent Bus Travel Service Model (IBTSM). The IBTSM makes it possible to provide a travel strategy considering every aspect of bus travel, specifically, delay in the peak period arising from limited carrying-capacities of buses. A three-step approach was executed toward implementing the IBTSM. First, the bus travel-time was predicted using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Next, the crowding level in the bus was evaluated using a fuzzy expert system, based on which a reasonable start-off time was planned, and the delay caused by large passenger flow was circumvented. The k-Nearest Neighbours (k-NN) algorithm was used to provide input data of passenger flow. In this study, the correlation between passenger flow variation and bus services was investigated to extend the provisions of the travel strategy to include start-off time scheduling and target bus selection, rather than only bus running-time estimation. The proposed model was evaluated using a bus in China as a case study, and its reliability and positive impact on promoting both the quality of bus services and development of intelligent travel were demonstrated.

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References

2011Bus arrival time prediction at bus stop with multiple routes 2009Using GPS Data to Gain Insight into Public Transport Travel Time Variability 2004A Dynamic Bus‐Arrival Time Prediction Model Based on APC Data 2004Prediction Model of Bus Arrival and Departure Times Using AVL and APC Data 2004Estimation of Bus Arrival Times Using APC Data 2017A Real-Time Passenger Flow Estimation and Prediction Method for Urban Bus Transit Systems 2009Dynamic multi-interval bus travel time prediction using bus transit data 2007Predicting Bus Arrival Time on the Basis of Global Positioning System Data

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