Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions

Abstract

Abstract We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence the dynamics of the coefficients in these models. An estimation algorithm and a parameterization conducive to model comparison are also provided. We apply our framework to the U.S. economy. Scenario analysis suggests that once accounting for the influence of structural shocks on the autoregressive coefficients, the effects of monetary policy on economic activity are larger and more persistent than in an otherwise standard TVP-VAR. Our results also indicate that cost-push shocks play a prominent role in understanding historical changes in inflation-gap persistence.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 26 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.