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Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions
15 references·2 citing·48 second hop
Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions (2021)Experts use base rates in real-world sequ…A description–experience gap in statistical intuitions: Of smart babies, risk-savvy chimps, intuitive statisticians, and stupid grown-ups (2021)A description–experience gap …The environmental malleability of base-rate neglect (2020)The environmental malleabilit…Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers (2018)Surprised by the Hot Hand Fal…Cognitive Illusions (2016)Cognitive IllusionsThe Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments (2015)The Two Settings of Kind and …The hot hand exists in volleyball and is used for allocation decisions. (2011)The hot hand exists in volley…Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. (2009)Conditions for intuitive expe…The rule of three: How the third event signals the emergence of a streak (2007)The rule of three: How the th…Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice (2004)Decisions from Experience and…The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges (1996)The base rate fallacy reconsi…Presentation and content: The use of base rates as a continuous variable. (1988)Presentation and content: The…The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences (1985)The hot hand in basketball: O…Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. (1983)Human Inference: Strategies a…On the psychology of prediction. (1973)On the psychology of predicti…Man as an intuitive statistician. (1967)Man as an intuitive statistic…Beyond the Odds (2024)Beyond the OddsThe paradoxical effects of time pressure on base rate neglect (2023)The paradoxical effects of ti…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)The theory of decision making. (1954)Applied Statistical Decision Theory (1962)Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. (1966)The processes of causal attribution. (1973)The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)Judged frequency of lethal events. (1978)The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1963)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)Affective Forecasting (2003)Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (2004)Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (2013)An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)On seeing human: A three-factor theory of anthropomorphism. (2007)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk: Why Global Warming does not Scare us (Yet) (2006)Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making (2006)The trouble with overconfidence. (2008)Theory of games and economic behavior (2019)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making (2005)Assessing Risk for Sexual Recidivism: Some Proposals on the Nature of Psychologically Meaningful Risk Factors (2010)Dual-Process Theories of Higher Cognition (2013)Nudging and Boosting: Steering or Empowering Good Decisions (2017)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)STEREOTYPES (1996)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Thinking forensics: Cognitive science for forensic practitioners (2016)Revisiting positionality and the thesis of situated knowledge (2019)The limits of human predictions of recidivism (2020)Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects (1981)The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence (1992)Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness (2008)Ask not what economics can do for sports - Ask what sports can do for economics (2020)Modeling Player and Team Performance in Basketball (2020)Good Guesses (2021)Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health. (1988)Teachers' Beliefs and Educational Research: Cleaning up a Messy Construct (1992)
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References

  • 1973On the psychology of prediction.6,201 cited
  • 1983Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment.4,196 cited
  • 2009Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree.2,436 cited
  • 2004Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice1,657 cited
  • 1985The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences1,648 cited
  • 1967Man as an intuitive statistician.966 cited
  • 1996The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges763 cited
  • 1988Presentation and content: The use of base rates as a continuous variable.418 cited
  • 2018Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers187 cited
  • 2015The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments185 cited
  • 2011The hot hand exists in volleyball and is used for allocation decisions.143 cited
  • 2007The rule of three: How the third event signals the emergence of a streak122 cited
  • 2016Cognitive Illusions51 cited
  • 2021A description–experience gap in statistical intuitions: Of smart babies, risk-savvy chimps, intuitive statisticians, and stupid grown-ups36 cited
  • 2020The environmental malleability of base-rate neglect

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  • 2023The paradoxical effects of time pressure on base rate neglect5 cited
  • 2024Beyond the Odds2 cited