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The energy transition and carbon emission efficiency are important thrust and target functions, respectively, for achieving carbon neutrality in the future. Using a sample of 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2018, we measured their carbon efficiency using the game cross-efficiency data envelopment analysis (DEA). Then, a random forest regression model was used to explore the impact of renewable energy development on regional carbon emission efficiency. The results are as follows. First, China's carbon emission efficiency in the southeast coastal area was better than that in the northwest area. Second, renewable energy development first inhibited and then promoted carbon emission efficiency, and there existed a reasonable range. Third, through a regional heterogeneity analysis, the trend of the influence of renewable energy development on carbon emission efficiency was found to not be significantly different in eastern, central, and western China, but there was a certain gap in the reasonable range. Our study not only helps to promote the study of renewable energy development and the carbon neutral target, but also provides an important reference for Chinese policy-makers to design a reasonable carbon emissions reduction path.
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