The modeling of effective parameters on public bus passengers’ boarding time prediction

Abstract

Passengers’ boarding times at bus stops have a great importance to calculate dwell time and travel time for scheduling process in transport operations. However, there are not so much observed boarding times data in the actual bus transport systems and it causes some prediction problem in scheduling process for public transport operations. For this reason, accurate estimation of the boarding times will supply correct calculation of dwell time and total travel time for bus transit systems. Based on this idea, this article aims to model boarding times of each passengers by evaluating different parameters using two different (statistical and optimization analysis) methods. For this purpose, a comprehensive data collection process was conducted in total seven different cities of Turkey based upon their population. In the study, two new models were developed for the estimation of boarding times by evaluating different effective parameters using a multiple Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm as statistical and optimization methods, respectively. It was found from the analysis that modeling of boarding times by considering various parameters is an effective strategy to improve the performance of bus transport systems. Results of the study also show that model results can be helpful for the researchers and public transport planners wishing to better understand to determine different boarding times of passengers by providing insights on the implementation on dwell time and total travel time calculation for the bus transport system.

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