A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Jan R. Magnus · Anatoly A. Peresetsky

45 citations0/0 files storedFrontiers in Psychology

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Probability and Statistical Research Psychometric Methodologies and Testing

Abstract

An explanation of the Dunning-Kruger effect is provided which does not require any psychological explanation, because it is derived as a statistical artifact. This is achieved by specifying a simple statistical model which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account. The model fits the data almost perfectly. JEL Classification: A22; C24; C91; D84; D91; I21.

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References

1999Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.2004Flawed Self-Assessment 1886Regression Towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature.2003Why People Fail to Recognize Their Own Incompetence 2011The Dunning–Kruger Effect 2013Item Response Theory 2007Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent 2006Skilled or unskilled, but still unaware of it: How perceptions of difficulty drive miscalibration in relative comparisons.

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