The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others.

David Alan Dunning · Lee D. Ross

257 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Personality and Social Psychology

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Social and Intergroup Psychology Personality Traits and Psychology

Abstract

Overconfident behavioral predictions and trait inferences may occur because people make inadequate allowance for the uncertainties of situational construal. In Studies 1-3, Ss estimated how much time or money they would spend in various hypothetical, incompletely specified situations. Ss then offered associated "confidence limits" under different "construal conditions". In Study 4, Ss made trait inferences about someone they believed had responded "deviantly"--again with situational details unspecified and construal conditions manipulated. In all 4 studies, Ss who made predictions or trait inferences without being able to assume the accuracy of their situational construals offered confidence limits no broader than those of Ss who made their responses contingent on such accuracy. Only in conditions where Ss were obliged to offer alternative construals did they appropriately broaden their confidence limits or weaken their trait inferences.

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2002Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability 2000Negotiation 1993Social Cognition and Social Perception 1995Actual versus assumed differences in construal: "Naive realism" in intergroup perception and conflict.2001Accuracy and bias in the perception of the partner in a close relationship.1991Subjective Construal, Social Inference, and Human Misunderstanding 1996THE MOTIVATIONAL IMPACT OF TEMPORAL FOCUS: Thinking About the Future and the Past 2002Kindred spirits? The benefits of egocentrism in close relationships.

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