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Probability Distributions of Common Repeated Events are Misestimated
13 references·0 citing·44 second hop
Probability Distributions of Common Repeated Events are Misestimated (2015)Probability Distributions of Common Repea…Surprisingly rational: Probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment. (2014)Surprisingly rational: Probab…Lay understanding of probability distributions (2014)Lay understanding of probabil…The description–experience gap in risky choice (2009)The description–experience ga…Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition (2006)Optimal Predictions in Everyd…Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice (2004)Decisions from Experience and…Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets (1996)Decision-Making Under Uncerta…Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty (1996)Are humans good intuitive sta…Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. (1994)Simultaneous over- and underc…Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Advances in prospect theory: …How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” (1991)How to Make Cognitive Illusio…Statistical criteria for establishing a truly false consensus effect (1989)Statistical criteria for esta…The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences (1985)The hot hand in basketball: O…A Bayesian Approach to the Production of Information and Learning by Doing (1977)A Bayesian Approach to the Pr…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments (1980)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)How we know--and sometimes misjudge--what others know: Imputing one's own knowledge to others. (1999)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model (1991)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)On the reality of cognitive illusions. (1996)Transaction Cost Economics: How It Works; Where It is Headed (1998)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)On seeing human: A three-factor theory of anthropomorphism. (2007)The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk (1948)The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable (2007)Do people “personally experience” global warming, and if so how, and does it matter? (2012)Toward a second-person neuroscience (2013)Humans use directed and random exploration to solve the explore–exploit dilemma. (2014)The Theory of Buyer Behavior (1971)A Logit Model of Brand Choice Calibrated on Scanner Data (1983)Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks (1984)How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. (1995)On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky. (1996)Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk: Why Global Warming does not Scare us (Yet) (2006)Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making (2006)The trouble with overconfidence. (2008)Theory of games and economic behavior (2019)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)The Econometrics of DSGE Models (2009)One and Done? Optimal Decisions From Very Few Samples (2014)The life course cube: A tool for studying lives (2018)Arbitrary metrics in psychology. (2006)Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. (2010)Ubiquitous Log Odds: A Common Representation of Probability and Frequency Distortion in Perception, Action, and Cognition (2012)Measuring Expectations (2004)
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References

  • 1992Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty15,457 cited
  • 2004Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice1,657 cited
  • 1985The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences1,648 cited
  • 1996Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty1,295 cited
  • 1996Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets1,223 cited
  • 1991How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”1,160 cited
  • 2009The description–experience gap in risky choice916 cited
  • 2006Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition645 cited
  • 1994Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.644 cited
  • 1989Statistical criteria for establishing a truly false consensus effect355 cited
  • 1977A Bayesian Approach to the Production of Information and Learning by Doing239 cited
  • 2014Surprisingly rational: Probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.141 cited
  • 2014Lay understanding of probability distributions116 cited

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