Looking Forward to Looking Backward: The Misprediction of Regret

Abstract

ABSTRACT—Decisions are powerfully affected by anticipated regret, and people anticipate feeling more regret when they lose by a narrow margin than when they lose by a wide margin. But research suggests that people are remarkably good at avoiding self-blame, and hence they may be better at avoiding regret than they realize. Four studies measured people’s anticipations and experiences of regret and self-blame. In Study 1, students overestimated how much more regret they would feel when they ‘‘nearly won’ ’ than when they ‘‘clearly lost’ ’ a contest. In Stud-ies 2, 3a, and 3b, subway riders overestimated how much more regret and self-blame they would feel if they ‘‘nearly caught’’ their trains than if they ‘‘clearly missed’ ’ their trains. These results suggest that people are less susceptible to regret than they imagine, and that decision makers who pay to avoid future regrets may be buying emotional insurance that they do not actually need. ‘‘Inside we both know you belong with Victor. You’re part of his work, the thing that keeps him going. If that plane leaves the ground and you’re not with him, you’ll regret it. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow. But soon and for the rest of your life.’’ —Rick to Ilsa, Casablanca (1943) Most of us have been on that runway at one time or another, and, like Ilsa, most of us have boarded the plane. Our most consequential choices—whether to marry, have children, buy a house, enter a pro-fession, or move abroad—are so often made out of fear of regret that students of decision making have focused more attention on this particular combination of disappointment and self-blame than on all

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