Heuristic Decision Making

Abstract

The chapter provides an extensive review of research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care systems, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and that (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. For the future, the big challenge for researchers is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

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