Fishbone diagram for technological analysis and foresight

Abstract

Fishbone diagram is a graphical technique to show the several causes of a specific event. Fishbone diagram is applied here as a novel method of graphical representation to identify, explore and analyse the sources of innovation and especially general purpose technologies (GPTs). Firstly, the study here shows the driving forces of GPTs, such as: higher democratisation, high investment in R&D, etc. Secondly, these drivers of GPTs and in general of new technology are systematised within fishbone diagrams for technological analysis. Some examples are illustrated by applying the fishbone diagram to specific GPTs, such as steam engine and information and communication technologies (ICTs). Overall, then, fishbone diagram seems to be an appropriate and general technique of graphical representation for the technological analysis and foresight of path-breaking innovation in society.

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