The evaluation of the resident demand for underground railways within walking distance of stations

Abstract

Introduction. Presently, the evaluation of underground railways in regional cities of Russia enjoys little attention in the research literature. We have assessed the relationship between passenger flows of underground railways in regional Russian cities and the number of residents within walking distance of the stations. This will allow understanding the potential development of underground railways and the future uses of existing networks towards a sustainable urban environment convenient for each resident. Materials and methods. The evaluation of the relationship was conducted retrospectively using the regression analysis method. The annual passenger flow of underground railways was chosen as a dependent variable, as it is less affected by random factors, compared to average daily variables. The living space of buildings within walking distance of underground railway stations was taken as an independent variable. Major social factors that may influence passenger flows were also taken into account. Results. For the period from the opening of the underground railway to the present day, the relationship between living spaces within walking distance of underground railway stations and passenger flows was identified for Ekaterinburg and Kazan. From 2005 to 2019, the relationship has been tracked for Novosibirsk with account taken of the effect of the benefit monetization reform and restrictive measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This dependence has not been identified for Samara and Nizhny Novgorod. The radii of walking distances from the stations, having the greatest impact on the passenger traffic, were identified for several cities. Conclusions. The residential function is not a universal factor determining passenger flows of underground railways in regional Russian cities. Social factors, affecting large segments of the population, such as monetization reforms, have a substantial effect. Further research is planned to evaluate other factors that influence passenger flows of underground railways in Samara and Nizhny Novgorod.

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