Modeling Profitability-Influencing Risk Factors for Construction Projects: A System Dynamics Approach

Khurram Iqbal Ahmad Khan · Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem · Fahim Ullah · Muwaffaq Alqurashi · Badr T. Alsulami

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Construction Project Management and Performance BIM and Construction Integration Complex Systems and Decision Making

Abstract

This study addressed the complexity involved in integrating the causative risk factors influencing construction profitability. Most of the existing studies cover the individual effects of profitability influencing factors. Very few focus on the systematic impact without incorporating the complexity and associated dynamics, presenting a gap targeted by the current study. The current study aimed to assess causative interrelations and interdependencies between profitability influencing risk factors (PIRF), through systems thinking (ST) and system dynamics (SD) modeling. The SD approach was used to evaluate the integrated impacts on profitability-influencing risk categories (PIRC) in construction projects. The causative influencing factors affecting construction profitability were identified through a comprehensive literature review. These were ranked using content analysis, and categorized into significant issues. Through 250 structured surveys and 15 expert opinion meetings, the path for quantitative and qualitative evaluations was prepared. Following these investigations, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was established using the ST technique, and the integrated effect was quantified using SD modeling. The study finds the rising cost of material, supply chain process, payment issues, planning and scheduling problems, financial difficulties, and effective control of manpower and equipment resources as the most critical PIRFs. The integrated effects of PIRFs on PIRC were quantified using SD modeling. This study helps field professionals with profitability-influencing factors, diagnosing issues, and integrating impacts regarding decision-making and policy formulation. For researchers, it presents a list of factors that can be investigated in detail, and the holistic interrelationships established.

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References

2016Member Checking 2007Risk assessment and allocation in the UAE construction industry 2002Using systems dynamics to better understand change and rework in construction project management systems 2016Project Complexity and Risk Management (ProCRiM): Towards modelling project complexity driven risk paths in construction projects 2002Integrated Methodology for Project Risk Management 2015Risk Assessment and Allocation in Highway Construction Projects in the UAE 2008Stakeholders and uncertainty management in projects 2013An exploration into cost-influencing factors on construction projects

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