Yearly Development of Car Ownership in Urban and Rural Environments

Abstract

The decision to own a car usually results from a mix of changes in socio-economics, residential location, demographics or preferences of the individuals. These changes do not directly influence car ownership but are lagged in time or sometimes occur on anticipation of future events. In this research we investigate how some of the most common predictors for car ownership change over the years and how much impact they actually have in their decision for owning a car. We make a distinction in impact for people living in an urban and people living in a rural environment. A multinomial logit was estimated in 4 separate years to assess the impact of changes in residential location, age and income. The results show that not only the impact of these common predictors is changing but also the relation that they have regarding car ownership. These results illustrates the complexity of car ownership and suggests a more dynamic approach for the prediction of car ownership in both urban and rural environments.

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