Do Exchange Rate Changes Improve the Trade Balance in GCC Countries: Evidence from Nonlinear Panel Cointegration

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric impact of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) on the trade balance in GCC countries over the period of 2000:Q1 to 2017:Q4. The empirical findings of the nonlinear pooled mean group (PMG) estimator reveal the presence of a J-curve shape where an increase in NEER (currency depreciation) deteriorates the trade balance in the short run and improves it in the long run. Findings also prove that the trade balance’s response to NEER positive changes is greater compared to negative changes. The policy implication of these findings reveals that NEER is a useful tool to sustain the trade balance.

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