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How Can We Get More Accurate: Recommendations About Human Judgment
14 references·0 citing·52 second hop
How Can We Get More Accurate: Recommendations About Human Judgment (2022)How Can We Get More Accurate: Recommendat…Words or numbers? Communicating probability in intelligence analysis. (2020)Words or numbers? Communicati…Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters (2020)Small steps to accuracy: Incr…War and Chance (2019)War and ChanceAccountability and adaptive performance under uncertainty: A long-term view (2017)Accountability and adaptive p…Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition (2016)Confidence Calibration in a M…The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics. (2015)The psychology of intelligenc…Intelligence and school grades: A meta-analysis (2015)Intelligence and school grade…Improving metacognition in the classroom through instruction, training, and feedback (2015)Improving metacognition in th…Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions (2015)Identifying and Cultivating S…Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (2014)Psychological Strategies for …Interpersonal comparison of subjective probabilities: Toward translating linguistic probabilities (2005)Interpersonal comparison of s…Ratings of Orally Presented Verbal Expressions of Probability by a Heterogeneous Sample (1992)Ratings of Orally Presented V…Verbal probabilities: Ambiguous, context-dependent, or both? (1988)Verbal probabilities: Ambiguo…How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions (1982)How probable is probable? A n…Book Reviews: Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis Larry V. Hedges and Ingram Olkin New York: Academic Press, 1985. xxii + 369 pp (1988)Trim and Fill: A Simple Funnel‐Plot–Based Method of Testing and Adjusting for Publication Bias in Meta‐Analysis (2000)Conducting Meta-Analyses in R with the metafor Package (2010)Academic Achievement (2014)The L2 motivational self system: A meta-analysis (2018)The relative importance of intelligence and motivation as predictors of school achievement: A meta-analysis (2018)Emotional Conservatism: The Basis of Social Behavior? (1980)Measuring the vague meanings of probability terms. 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(1993)Mindset: the new psychology of success (2006)Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science (2015)A Note on the Perverse Effects of Actively Open-Minded Thinking on Climate-change Polarization (2016)I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement (2016)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls (2016)What Motivates Effort? Evidence and Expert Forecasts (2017)Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What? (2018)The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments (2018)Worker overconfidence: Field evidence and implications for employee turnover and firm profits (2020)“Are You Really Sure?” Understanding the Effects of Human Self-Confidence Calibration in AI-Assisted Decision Making (2024)
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References

  • 2015Intelligence and school grades: A meta-analysis530 cited
  • 1982How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions527 cited
  • 1988Verbal probabilities: Ambiguous, context-dependent, or both?334 cited
  • 2014Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament310 cited
  • 2015Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions237 cited
  • 2015The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.187 cited
  • 2015Improving metacognition in the classroom through instruction, training, and feedback157 cited
  • 1992Ratings of Orally Presented Verbal Expressions of Probability by a Heterogeneous Sample86 cited
  • 2005Interpersonal comparison of subjective probabilities: Toward translating linguistic probabilities75 cited
  • 2016Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition74 cited
  • 2020Words or numbers? Communicating probability in intelligence analysis.54 cited
  • 2019War and Chance49 cited
  • 2020Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters45 cited
  • 2017Accountability and adaptive performance under uncertainty: A long-term view37 cited

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