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A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment
16 references·16 citing·51 second hopsampled
A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment (2010)A simple remedy for overprecision in judg…Associative processes in intuitive judgment (2010)Associative processes in intu…The trouble with overconfidence. (2008)The trouble with overconfiden…Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you? (2008)Overconfidence in interval es…The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals. (2007)The naïve intuitive statistic…When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals (2005)When 90% confidence intervals…CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment (2005)CEO Overconfidence and Corpor…Overconfidence in Interval Estimates. (2004)Overconfidence in Interval Es…Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask (1999)Overconfidence: It Depends on…Format dependence in subjective probability calibration. (1999)Format dependence in subjecti…Do Investors Trade Too Much? (1999)Do Investors Trade Too Much?Taking into account the strength of an alternative hypothesis. (1998)Taking into account the stren…Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Investor Psychology and Secur…Multiple explanation: A consider-an-alternative strategy for debiasing judgments. (1995)Multiple explanation: A consi…Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. (1994)Support theory: A nonextensio…Assessing uncertainty in physical constants (1986)Assessing uncertainty in phys…Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: H…Prior Experience of Managers and Maladaptive Responses to Performance Feedback: Evidence from Mutual Funds (2022)Prior Experience of Managers …Overprecision is a property of thinking systems. (2022)Overprecision is a property o…The overconfident and optimistic price-setting newsvendor (2019)The overconfident and optimis…Overconfident Distribution Channels (2018)Overconfident Distribution Ch…Reframing the Decision-Makers’ Dilemma: Towards a Social Context Model of Creative Idea Recognition (2017)Reframing the Decision-Makers…Overconfidence over the lifespan (2017)Overconfidence over the lifes…Combining Interval Forecasts (2017)Combining Interval ForecastsTask Decomposition and Newsvendor Decision Making (2016)Task Decomposition and Newsve…Pseudo-Precision? Precise Forecasts and Impression Management in Managerial Earnings Forecasts (2016)Pseudo-Precision? Precise For…Overconfident Competing Newsvendors (2016)Overconfident Competing Newsv…Overconfidence at work: Does overconfidence survive the checks and balances of organizational life? (2016)Overconfidence at work: Does …Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition (2016)Confidence Calibration in a M…A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples (2016)A Behavioral Model of Forecas…Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals (2013)Unpacking the Future: A Nudge…Making sense of overconfidence in market entry (2013)Making sense of overconfidenc…A Behavioral Demonstration of Overconfidence in Judgment (2013)A Behavioral Demonstration of…Statistical principles in experimental design. (1962)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)Gender and Competition (2011)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)The case for motivated reasoning. 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References

  • 1998Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions5,711 cited
  • 2005CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment3,686 cited
  • 1982Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases3,643 cited
  • 2008The trouble with overconfidence.2,347 cited
  • 1999Do Investors Trade Too Much?2,245 cited
  • 1994Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.1,159 cited
  • 1999Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask786 cited
  • 2004Overconfidence in Interval Estimates.508 cited
  • 2010Associative processes in intuitive judgment492 cited
  • 1995Multiple explanation: A consider-an-alternative strategy for debiasing judgments.354 cited
  • 1986Assessing uncertainty in physical constants320 cited
  • 2007The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals.209 cited
  • 2008Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?180 cited
  • 1999Format dependence in subjective probability calibration.177 cited
  • 2005When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals167 cited

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1998
Taking into account the strength of an alternative hypothesis.
146 cited

Cited by

  • 2016Overconfident Competing Newsvendors167 cited
  • 2013Making sense of overconfidence in market entry151 cited
  • 2017Reframing the Decision-Makers’ Dilemma: Towards a Social Context Model of Creative Idea Recognition144 cited
  • 2016Task Decomposition and Newsvendor Decision Making92 cited
  • 2018Overconfident Distribution Channels82 cited
  • 2016Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition74 cited
  • 2013A Behavioral Demonstration of Overconfidence in Judgment69 cited
  • 2022Overprecision is a property of thinking systems.66 cited
  • 2016A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples64 cited
  • 2019The overconfident and optimistic price-setting newsvendor63 cited
  • 2017Overconfidence over the lifespan60 cited
  • 2016Pseudo-Precision? Precise Forecasts and Impression Management in Managerial Earnings Forecasts60 cited
  • 2017Combining Interval Forecasts59 cited
  • 2013Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals55 cited
  • 2022Prior Experience of Managers and Maladaptive Responses to Performance Feedback: Evidence from Mutual Funds50 cited
  • 2016Overconfidence at work: Does overconfidence survive the checks and balances of organizational life?50 cited