Article2023

The small world's problem is everyone's problem, not a reason to favor CNT over probabilistic decision theory

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies

Abstract

The case for the superiority of Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) over probabilistic approaches rests on selective employment of a double standard. The authors judge probabilistic approaches inadequate for failing to apply to "grand-world" decision problems, while they praise CNT for its treatment of "small-world" decision problems. When both approaches are held to the same standard, the comparative question is murkier.

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